Fahad Ali

Patience With Afghanistan Wearing Thin

The euphoria exhibited by some vital quarters in Pakistan about the Taliban takeover of Kabul has not only vanished in thin air but the indications that the subsequent upsurge in terrorism in Pakistan has a clear Afghan hand has pushed the Pakistani policy makers to betray their impatience with the duplicitous activities of the Afghan Taliban regime.

The recent terrorist outrage in Balochistan that claimed lives of 12 soldiers rated to be the highest single-day death toll has proved to be a catalyst for the profound change in the perception of Pakistani security establishment that now has clearly reached the end of tether in respect of terrorist activities perpetrated in the country. The security establishment has conveyed its profound displeasure at the tacit support provided to the militant outfits in Pakistan by the Kabul regime. The tone of the security circles is quite sharp indicative of the growing impatience within its ranks about the growing acts of terrorism in Pakistan and may well result in stringent defensive measures. It is quite obvious that any countermeasures may be very calculated in essence keeping in view the tenuous pattern of relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan and ever-present prospects of confrontation between them.

It was not only the security establishment that aired its gradually toughening views about the terrorist situation in the country but the incumbent political leadership has echoed similar sentences. The security establishment was very specific in denouncing the safe havens and liberty of action available to Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Afghanistan and this denunciation speaks volumes about the growing anger with the leadership and ranks of the army. The ISPR statement about the Afghan Taliban’s inaction vis-à-vis counterterrorism is particularly significant as the security establishment has thus far avoided commenting on the situation so directly. There is hardly any doubt that there is good reason for matters having deteriorated to this point.

This statement was immediately echoed by Pakistan’s defence minister criticising the Taliban regime for neglecting its duties as a neighbouring and fraternal country and for disregarding the counterterrorism commitments it had made in the Doha peace agreement. He added that this situation cannot continue any longer and though he refrained from stating that Pakistan would engage in hot pursuit of terrorists across the border into Afghanistan. He however is on record asserting few months before that Pakistan’s patience with Kabul is clearly wearing thin and some kind of counter action may be in offing.

Despite showing restraint the defence minister was very specific about the lack of cooperation from the Afghan regime in controlling the activities of TTP and specifically referred to the Doha peace agreement that expected Afghan regime to ensure that its soil will not be used for terrorist activities. He virtually rebuked the Taliban regime for neither fulfilling its obligation as a neighbouring and brotherly country nor safeguarding the peace agreement. He added that Pakistan provided refuge to six million Afghan nationals for decades but in return what they are getting is the terrorists harboured by Kabul to shed Pakistani blood. The Pakistan army was even more severe by underlining the fact it is gravely concerned about the liberty of action available to the militants in Afghanistan implying that this was a nexus they are facing and that they would like it to end.

The army has repeatedly pointed out the involvement of Afghan nationals in such incidents and in its recent reaction categorically stated that such attacks are intolerable and would elicit an effective response from the security forces of Pakistan. This is a serious turn of events and may result in serious consequences that may unbalance the region to the peril of the countries therein.

It is well known that Afghan Taliban regime has given freedom to twenty terrorist groups to move around at will in Afghanistan and quite obviously pursuing their nefarious designs. It is also widely acknowledged that of all the terrorist groups the Taliban regime has a soft spot for TTP and it is known widely that they have a close nexus and are considered part of the Afghan emirate.

This situation symbolises the intense and complete failure of the concept of strategic depth and instead it has boomeranged and is now causing serious consequences for Pakistan. The recent attacks in Zhob clearly point out to the hazardous consequences of the nexus between the Kabul regime and the TTP as the attack took place significantly in areas hitherto considered relatively free of militancy. More significant is the fact that these attacks targeted security forces personnel and it must be borne in mind that they are factually their enemies and they have proclaimed it consistently on all available forums.

When viewed in this backdrop one feels like connecting the dots and they would lead to the curious dimension that these attacks in Balochistan are taking place in areas that are influenced by the TTP narrative and are Pakhtun majority areas making it somewhat out of sync with the rampant insurgency in Balochistan although consistent attempts are made to portray it this way.

Though these areas are closer to the border with Afghanistan and also in close proximity to tribal districts such as South Waziristan but they had remained comparatively less affected by terrorist activities in the past. It is looking that since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, two fronts have been opened against the state by the TTP that has stepped up its attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well as the Pakhtun belt of Balochistan.

This fact is borne out that in recent time the TTP has been trying to make inroads in the Baloch-majority areas of the province releasing propaganda videos in Balochi that highlight the issue of missing persons along with pointing out to the deprivation faced by the people of Balochistan.

It is interesting to observe that the TTP has often stated that it wants to split Balochistan into two parts and mention that the Baloch-majority area is part of their Kalat-Makran chapter while the Pakhtun-dominated parts fall under the Zhob chapter. Though the recent attacks in Zhob were claimed by some obscure Tehrik-i-Jihad Pakistan but it indicates a change of strategy as it wants to put pressure on the western route of CPEC that passes through Pakhtun-majority areas of Balochistan.

It is not a hidden fact that China has been acutely apprehensive about the fundamentalist policies of the entire Taliban network and has been working with the regional arrangements aimed at frustrating the designs of the extremist and terrorist groups. The prime responsibility of ensuring the security of CPEC lies with Pakistani military therefore it becomes the prime target for the terrorist outfits particularly the TTP.

Though the situation is getting out of control yet the Pakistani authorities cannot do much at this juncture except bringing to the notice of global community the irresponsibly aggressive policy pursued by the Kabul regime though the chances of the regime paying any heed to such efforts are scant as the Afghan Taliban are impervious to international opinion. The other method is to approach the issue on a regional level and the efforts in this direction are on the course as Pakistan, Iran and China held trilateral meeting about regional security situation and hopefully it may have some bearing on the behaviour of the Afghan regime.

August 12, 2023
Manipur Violence And Modi

The problems confronting Narendra Modi are mounting by the day just as Indian national elections are approaching. Modi is known for keeping his nerves during crises but the Armageddon-like situation that has developed in the eastern state of Manipur has the potential of rattling nerves of even the most strong-nerved.

A long stretch of a highway in the foothills of Manipur has become a battleground of sectarian conflict claiming over 180 people since May and severely dented the strongman image of Modi. The bitter fighting between the Meitei community and the Kuki tribals has lasted for almost three months, a deep embarrassment for Modi as he prepares to host a summit of G20 leaders in September.

The two communities have lived tensely in the past but violence erupted in early May after the state high court ordered the government to consider extending economic benefits reserved for the Kuki tribals to the Meiteis. The ethnic tensions in the small state are seen as a security and political failure by Modi’s government which will face a national election by May next year.

Many analysts lay the blame of this law and order breakdown at the doorsteps of Modi and consider it as his failure at a time of grave national crisis. They point out that Modi lives in a bubble of his own and does not like to be associated with bad news and somehow hopes he will ride it out.

There is plenty of truth in these observations because Modi prefers himself to be portrayed as a harbinger of victory and progress and shies away when challenged as happened in case of the farmer’s crisis earlier. His attitude smacks that of a pied piper who only leads irrespective of what happens in wake of his self-serving forward march.

Ironically, it was Modi’s tough image that won Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) more seats in the state enabling it to form government but now both the major communities have expressed disappointment about his handling of the crisis. India’s parliament has authorised a no-confidence vote against Narendra Modi’s government by an alliance of opposition parties, to force the prime minister to address in detail concerns about ethnic clashes in Manipur.

Manipur is one of seven states in India’s Northeast region, often referred to as the seven sisters which are connected to the rest of the country by a narrow strip of land that skirts Nepal and Bangladesh.

The region, which consists of a mosaic of ethnicities, languages and cultures, many of them tribal, is home to some of India’s oldest separatist insurgencies. Many of these erupted soon after independence in 1947, partly as a result of the administrative chaos in 1947.

The ongoing conflict has pitted the Meitei, who make up 53 per cent of the state’s 2.85 million population but occupy only 10 per cent of its land, against the Kuki and 33 other tribes, which constitute about 30 per cent of the population and are geographically more spread out in the poorer hill areas. The conflict stems from decades of contest over land and natural resources, fuelling deep-seated resentment among both the Meiteis and Kukis. Though the Kukis are mostly Christian and the Meitei mostly Hinduthe violence has occurred over ethnic rather than religious divides.

The Meiteis appear to have been the more aggressive side and as Manipur’s largest community, they enjoy immense social, political and economic advantages, not least dominating the state government and therefore its police force, which gives them an upper hand in the conflict. The Meitei also enjoy certain benefits on account of being recognised as a socially and economically backward classand a tiny segment of them as a Scheduled Caste. But they have been demanding the tribal status instead, arguing that it is necessary to preserve the community and save its heritage.

The Kuki have long been recognised as a Scheduled Tribe under Indian law, an affirmative action measure that assures tribal community members access to state-run educational institutions, government jobs and safeguards such as the exclusive right to buy and own land in the state’s recognised tribal areas.

The Kuki, however, argue that the more numerous Meitei are already privileged. The minority fears that if the Meitei get Scheduled Tribe status, they will not only corner the reserved government jobs but also start acquiring land in the hills, displacing Kukis and other tribal communities.

The court verdict resulted in street protests that spiralled into armed conflict and now rival gunmen have dug into bunkers and outposts along the highway and in other places in Manipur and regularly fire at each other with assault weapons, sniper rifles and pistols. The violence broke out in Churachandpur, a town just south of the state capital Imphal, on 3 May, following a Kuki-led tribal solidarity march in ten of the state’s sixteen districts. As the Meitei organised counter-protests and blockades, clashes spread across Manipur. Women were part of some of the mobs. In some cases, they blocked soldiers trying to intervene in order to shield Meitei men conducting attacks.

Thousands have been injured and more than 60,000 displaced in the violence; more than 12,000 have fled to the neighbouring Mizoram state. Hundreds of houses, places of worship and vehicles have been vandalised, and thousands of weapons stolen from government armouries.

Arson and other attacks continue unabated. Numerous serious cases of sexual violence by Meitei men, militias and militants against Kuki women have also been reported, and all available evidence points to the widespread use of sexual violence as part of the ethnic conflict.

The Meitei-dominated state police are seen as partisan while army troops have been ordered to keep the peace but not to disarm fighters. There is no sign of any early resolution.

During the course of the conflict, the Kukis, who are a third of the Meitei population, have borne a disproportionate brunt of the violence and make up two-thirds of the victims. They have mostly fled to the hills, leaving the capital Imphal and the surrounding valley, areas dominated by the majority Meiteis.

Much of the violence and killings have taken place in buffer zones near Manipur’s foothills where intense gun battles erupt regularly. Modi’s first comments on the violence in Manipur came over two months after the trouble started in early May. He promised tough action a day after videos that purported to show two Kuki women being paraded naked and assaulted by a crowd went viral and drew international condemnation. Modi’s BJP also heads the state government in Manipur.

The opposition is likely to ask why he is persisting with support to Manipur Chief Minister Biren Singh, a Meitei who heads the BJP state government. Keeping in view their growing isolation, the Kukisnow want a separate state within India.

International concern about the Manipur violence has been muted so far, though on 13 July the European Parliament passed a resolution asking the Indian government to take all necessary measures and make the utmost effort to promptly halt the ongoing ethnic and religious violence. The resolution also asked the government to end the internet shutdown and to grant unhindered access to journalists and international observers.

August 12, 2023
INDIA against Modi

There is hardly any doubt that democratic governance moves slowly as it is firmly based upon arriving at consensual agreement about issues and that is certainly a time-consuming and tedious process. India under Modi’s majoritarian governance apparently has had enough for the extremist policies his regime followed as has become clear by the level of opposition to his rule.

The Indian opposition has rallied in a broad-based alliance dubbed INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) that may counter Modi on every step in the run-up to next year’s election and also election exercise. While the new alliance holds a lot of promise especially for India’s tortured minorities as well as other downtrodden communities that have been crushed by the Hindutwa juggernaut, the fact is that large, ideologically diverse groupings can be notoriously unwieldy and it will take the combined political wisdom of the INDIA parties to send the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies home.

The meeting of the leaders marked a significant step forward in the relationship between the country’s main national and regional opposition parties who have previously struggled to unite due to power struggles, personality clashes and ideological differences. However, a consensus was reached earlier this year that unless they formed a united front, no single party stood a viable chance against Modi and his BJP government which will be seeking a third term in the election to be held in May 2024.

Included in the coalition are India’s largest national opposition, the Congress party, as well as powerful regional parties such as Trinamool Congress which governs the state of West Bengal under the popular chief minister, Mamata Banerjee, and the Aam Aadmi party which governs Delhi and Punjab and has gradually emerged as a national political grouping that may be in a position to challenge both the BJP and Congress.

The most significant development that occurred in this context was the stance taken by the Congress that, unlike in the past, Congress would not be asserting its dominance in the opposition alliance and was not interested in the prime ministerial post.

A full election strategy will be decided by the coalition at meetings due to be held over the next few months but its tagline will be “Jeetega Bharat”, meaning “India will win”. It certainly is a tall order and may push to the limit their combined political skills, social understanding and communication expertise as Hindutwa has been deeply embraced by the country’s xenophobic majority.

India, at the moment, is facing the horrid consequences of ideological polarisation that its leadership successfully avoided during the first half-a-century of its existence. Though the country is widely celebrated for its so-called adherence to democracy but for all intents it has become a lip-service with the majority perceptions having a field day.

INDIA is composed of a motley political crowd with centrist heavyweights such as Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party hauled up along with political groups belonging to the hard right such as a faction of the Shiv Sena and at least three different communist parties. There are also several regional parties on board including those representing South Indian states that have scant interest in affairs of the northern areas. Their common goal is to unseat the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance next year and rebuild a more inclusive India. Significantly, the alliance is emphasising restoration of democratic and human values, many of which have been bulldozed by the BJP regime in its quest to build a Hindu state. In a resolution passed at their meeting the alliance parties declared their intention to protect secular democracy, economic sovereignty, social justice and federalism which they say have been menacingly undermined during the BJP’s stint in power.

The alliance’s pledge to stop violence against India’s minorities must also be soothing to the ears of that country’s Muslims, Christians and followers of other faiths. It is quite obvious that the BJP machine supported by its ideological guru RSS will not hesitate from employing any stratagem including exciting the chauvinistic Hindu middle class that considers itself to be an epitome of unprecedented success and views communal matters self-righteously showing hardly any respect to other communities and unwilling to take them into the national mainstream.

INDIA has also touched upon forming a Uniform Civil Code that essentially implies doing away with religious personal law as applicable to minorities and this perspective is surely the way matters are required to be viewed in India these days. However, the opposition is not very amenable to the idea of making up with Pakistan and it looks quite remote that relations between both the countries will improve in near future unless some kind of interlocution succeeds in bringing about a breakthrough. It is otherwise not easy to neutralise the toxicity that has been sowed by the BJP between Pakistan and India and the traditional bad boy of Indian political practice is Pakistan and they feel comfortable to whip it whenever they find it suitable.

BJP has succeeded in shifting blame of any untoward activity taking place in the country towards Pakistan and has so badly poisoned the public opinion that even the rational segments of India find it difficult to initiate any kind of confidence building measures between both the country. The BJP narrative has unfortunately been aided by short term policy decisions taken by gradually besieging elements of Pakistani decision making that considered keeping India as a pulsating risk to Pakistan and taking steps that exacerbated the situation between the neighbours. The process of reversing the effects of such rather mindless actions will take a considerably long time and extraordinary efforts and for the time being it does not look possible.

Though the unification decision sends a very strong signal to Modi and his party but even as a united front INDIA-parties face an uphill battle in taking on Modi, who still commands huge popularity across India, even among voters who do not consider themselves supporters of the BJP’s politics on a state level. This situation is clear to be witnessed as between the 26 parties, INDIA governs 11 states while the BJP governs 15 along with holding an overwhelming parliamentary majority after the 2019 election in which it won 303 seats out of 543.

Moreover, during his nine years in power, Modi has consolidated his power as prime minister, while the opposition parties have been the targets of raids and investigations by state agencies and several opposition leaders have been jailed systematically weakening the opposition. It is also pointed out that the former leader of the Congress party, Rahul Gandhi, who lost the last two elections to Modi, was in March disqualified from parliament and from running in next year’s election, and sentenced to two years in jail over a court case that critics alleged was politically motivated.

It is also observed that while opposition parties such as Congress and Trinamool Congress have been emboldened by state election results in which they beat the BJP, overall the BJP’s funds, resources and power far outstretch those of any other political party. It is often held that BJP is India’s richest political party with a declared income of 19.17 billion rupees and its biggest strength in a national election is the popularity of Modi, who has been able to sway even voters who may have chosen a different party in state polls.

August 5, 2023
What Erdogan’s victory means for Turkey?

Though Erdogan was predicted to win but the opposition that he faced was quite strong and at one point it appeared that an upset may occur. However, at the end of the day Erdogan got through winning a historic runoff election that extended two decades of his transformative but divisive rule until 2028.

Erdogan, 69, known for his tenacity to stay in power has behaved like a chameleon to remain at the helm and has become quite a controversial figure both within and outside Turkiye but he overcame his country’s worst economic crisis in a generation and the most powerful opposition alliance to ever face his party on his way to his toughest election win beating his secular opposition challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu by four percentage points. The balloting was largely orderly though the field was stacked in Erdogan’s favour.

In the run-up to the election, he tapped the treasury for populist spending programmes that raised the minimum wage, lowered the retirement age and distributed free natural gas. The president and his allies also were afforded blanket media coverage — one state outlet covered Erdogan’s campaign for more than 32 hours while devoting just 32 minutes to Kilicdaroglu.

Turkiye’s longest-serving leader was tested like never before in what was widely seen as the country’s most consequential election in its 100-year history as a post-Ottoman republic.

Kilicdaroglu pushed Erdogan into Turkiye’s first runoff on 14 May and narrowed the margin further in the second round. Opposition supporters viewed it as a do-or-die chance to save Turkiye from being turned into an autocracy by a man whose consolidation of power rivals that of Ottoman sultans.

The runoff election was the first in Turkey’s modern history, after neither Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu secured a majority in the first round, winning 49 per cent and 45 per cent of the vote, respectively. On the heels of a poorer –than-expected showing on 14 May by Kilicdaroglu’s alliance, most polls predicted a comfortable victory for Erdogan, who has led Turkey for two decades as prime minister, then president. Erdogan garnered 52 per cent of the vote giving the president a four-point victory over his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in a result that affirmed Erdogan’s gift for political survival and his uncontested control over the levers of state.

Facing an electorate bludgeoned by a long economic crisis — largely of his own making — Erdogan shifted the public conversation to debates over terrorism and national sovereignty, outflanking Kilicdaroglu, who emphasised pocketbook issues and the president’s increasingly authoritarian practices. Erdogan’s victory highlighted the power of his most loyal supporters, many of them conservative Muslims, as a pivotal and enduring force in the country’s politics. And it left the opposition wondering what might have been had they chosen a candidate more charismatic than the 74-year-old Kilicdaroglu — a bespectacled party bureaucrat who adopted more hard-line rhetoric in the last weeks of his campaign in an unsuccessful bid to attract nationalist voters.

Turkey’s overseas allies, including the United States, must navigate another five-year term with the mercurial Erdogan, a prickly partner who has leveraged his government’s relations with a constellation of international actors — including Russia — for domestic political gain.

Despite facing tough electoral contest, Erdogan is lionised by poorer and more rural swathes of Turkiye’s fractured society because of his promotion of religious freedoms and modernisation of once-dilapidated cities in the Anatolian heartland. But he has caused growing consternation across the Western world because of his crackdowns on dissent and pursuit of a muscular foreign policy.

Many in Turkey, and the Muslim world more widely, see Erdogan as a protector of faithful Muslims who elevates Turkey globally and pushes back against the West, despite being a longtime Western ally. He launched military incursions into Syria that infuriated European powers and put Turkish soldiers on the opposite side of Kurdish forces supported by the United States.

His personal relationship with Putin has also survived the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. Turkiye’s troubled economy is benefiting from a crucial deferment of payment on Russian energy imports that helped Erdogan spend lavishly on campaign pledges this year. Erdogan also delayed Finland’s membership of NATO and is still refusing to let Sweden join the US-led defence bloc. Erdogan is likely to continue trying to play world powers off each other should he win and Turkiye’s relations with the US and the EU will remain transactional and tense.

It is opined by many that Turkiye’s unraveling economy will pose the most immediate test for Erdogan. He went through a series of central bankers to find one who would enact his wish to slash interest rates at all costs in 2021.

Turkiye’s currency soon entered freefall and the annual inflation rate touched 85 per cent last year. Erdogan has promised to continue these policies and rejected analysts’ predictions of economic peril. Turkiye burned through tens of billions of dollars trying to support the lira from politically sensitive falls ahead of the vote. Many analysts say Turkiye must now hike interest rates or abandon its attempts to support the lira. They point out that the day of reckoning for Turkiye’s economy and financial markets may now just be around the corner and it may prove to be the toughest test of Erdogan’s ability to manage affairs of his country.

On the other hand, Kilicdaroglu cobbled together a powerful coalition of Erdogan’s disenchanted former allies with secular nationalists and religious conservatives. Opposition supporters viewed it as a do-or-die chance to save Turkiye from being turned into an autocracy by a leader whose consolidation of power rivals that of Ottoman sultans. But Erdogan still managed to come within a fraction of a percentage point of winning outright in the first round. Kilicdaroglu, former civil servant’s old message of social unity and democracy gave way to desk-thumping speeches about the need to immediately expel migrants and fight terrorism. His right-wing turn was targeted at nationalists who emerged as the big winners of the parallel parliamentary elections. The 74-year-old had always adhered to the firm nationalist principles of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the military commander who formed both Turkiye and Kilicdaroglu’s secular CHP party. But these had played a secondary role to his promotion of socially liberal values practised by younger voters and big-city residents. Kilicdaroglu’s party, the CHP, strives for the fiercely secular model of leadership first established by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of the modern Turkish state. It is known for being historically more hostile to practicing Muslims who form an enormous part of the Turkish electorate, although the CHP under Kilicdaroglu has softened its stance and was even joined by former Islamist party members.

The future does not look rosy for Erdogan as his policies have brought Turkiye to the brink of economic chaos with the country’s inflation rate surpassed 80% in 2022 and lira losing some 77% of its value against the dollar over the last five years. International and domestic voices alike also have sounded the alarm that Turkey’s democracy under Erdogan is looking less democratic by the day. The frequent arrests of journalists, forced closures of many independent media outlets and heavy crackdowns on past protest movements — as well as a 2017 constitutional referendum that vastly expanded Erdogan’s presidential powers — signal what many say is a slide toward autocracy. But with a fresh mandate to lead and previous reforms consolidating presidential power very little stands in the way of a stronger Erdogan than ever before.

June 8, 2023
Modi humbled in Karnataka

After Aam Aaadmi Party (AAP) making inroads in the hegemonic control exercised by PM Modi on the political landscape of India, India’s main opposition, Congress party has started to regain its electoral strength that it had badly lost to the extreme rightwing BJP and the latest example is Karnataka election.

2024 is the national election year in India and getting beaten so close to it in one of the
crucial states is certainly a bad omen for Narendra Modi and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Congress party wrested control of the crucial southern Karnataka state from Modi’s Hindu nationalist party after a near complete vote count that boosted its prospects ahead of national elections.

With vote count continuing, India’s Election Commission said the Congress had crossed the majority mark of 113 in the state assembly by winning 123 seats and leading in 12 other constituencies. Modi’s party won or was leading in 64 seats with another regional party,
the Janata Dal (Secular) landing with 20 seats.

Karnataka is one of the wealthiest states in India with a population of well over 60 million people and its capital Bengaluru is India’s technical hub.

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The election in Karnataka was the first of five crucial state polls this year. They are seen as an indicator of voter sentiment ahead of national elections next year. Karnataka is the second state Modi’s party has lost to the Congress in the last six months.

In December, the Congress unseated BJP in northern Himachal Pradesh, a small state tucked in the Himalaya mountain range. Karnataka was the only southern state where the Hindu nationalist grouping led by the BJP held power. According to the 2011 census, India’s most recent, 84% of Karnataka’s people were Hindu, almost 13% Muslim and less than 2%
Christian.

The BJP fell short of a majority in the last state election in Karnataka in 2018 but it assumed power a year later allegedly by persuading members of the ruling coalition to defect. The BJP had been in power in Karnataka since 2018 and campaigned hard to hold on to the state despite a strong anti-incumbency sentiment.

BJP’s tenuous hold on Karnataka was viewed as a crucial stepping stone for its political ambitions in the nearby states of Telangana and Tamil Nadu which have so far largely resisted the Hindu nationalist politics of the BJP.

In an attempt to win over voters, Modi spearheaded the campaign taking part in nine rallies and road-shows in the final weeks of campaigning. However, despite a high-octane campaign during which the BJP held more than 9,000 rallies, Modi’s popularity was not enough to overcome allegations of corruption against the BJP state government as well as frustrations over rising inflation and a lack of job creation outside the city’s thriving capital, Bengaluru.

The state’s dominant Lingayat caste, once a strong part of the BJP’s base, had also been seen to withdraw support after several old-guard leaders were not given tickets to run.

Initially, Modi’s party promised to spur development and wooed voters with social welfare measures.

However, in the lead-up to the polls it veered toward Hindu nationalism, its usual playbook campaign and accused the Congress of disregarding Hindu values and appeasing minority groups, particularly Muslims.

It also scrapped a 4% reservation in job and education quotas for Muslims and distributed them to two Hindu caste groups. The party had mounted a major campaign in the state with Modi himself visiting to promote its muscular brand of Hindu politics.

At one of his rallies, Modi praised an incendiary new film ‘Kerala Story’ that wildly exaggerates the number of Hindu women converting to Islam and joining the Islamic State militant group.

Modi — who is widely expected to stand again in the 2024 general election — also attempted to woo Hindu majority voters by chanting Hanuman Chalisa, an ode to the monkey god
Hanuman.

Over the past couple of years, Modi’s party had been trying to maximise gains in Karnataka, where communal polarisation between majority Hindus and minority Muslims has deepened after BJP leaders and supporters banned girls from wearing headscarf as part of their school uniform.

However, unlike in north India, the BJP’s attempts to use religious polarisation to mobilise the Hindu majority proved relatively unsuccessful, except in the coastal areas of the state, where right-wing Hindu nationalist elements had been particularly proactive under their recent government.

The defeat in Karnataka means Modi’s party, which was banking on his popularity, has lost its toehold in the south where its strident Hindu nationalist politics had found relatively slower reception than the rest of the country.

Over the past several weeks, Modi had campaigned aggressively in Karnataka and crisscrossed the state by holding huge road-shows. Analysts say that the BJP, that governed Karnataka for four years, faced strong anti-incumbency sentiment. Its tenure was marked by internal squabbles and allegations of poor governance. Party leaders also mostly focused on the achievements of Modi’s federal government in their speeches. It was mentioned that Modi had staked his own personal charisma and credibility to try and revive the party from anti-incumbency but that did not seem to work at the level that he would have expected.

The results show that the Congress was able to put its differences aside and come together to fight the election and the results are expected to energise the largely divided opposition that is banking on forming a united front to challenge Modi in next year’s general election in which he will seek to extend his prime ministership for a third consecutive term.

The election result will also help the prospects of the Congress party that was routed by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party in the last two national polls and is striving to regain its political prominence nationwide.

It was pointed out that election campaign was fought on local issues and the Congress built its campaign by targeting Modi’s party over rising inflation, allegations of corruption and poor infrastructure development in the state, while promising electricity subsidies, rations to poor families, and financial assistance to unemployed graduates.

The polls were also seen as yet another faceoff between Modi and Rahul Gandhi
who was convicted of making defamatory remarks about the prime minister’s last
name during an election rally in 2019.

It led to Gandhi’s ouster from Parliament in March and he risks losing his eligibility to run in elections for the next eight years if a court does not overturn his conviction.

Late last year, Gandhi set on a 3,500-kilometer walking tour of Indian cities towns and villages to rejuvenate the party and win the people’s support.

Congress campaigned hard on secularism, giveaways of free electricity and rice for the poor and accusations of BJP corruption. However, some analysts are of the view that the Karnataka result may have limited impact on next year’s polls at which the BJP is widely expected to secure a third consecutive victory.

The result was a major triumph for Congress which has had an otherwise poor record of winning state elections since Modi came to power in 2014 with only three
other states under its control before adding the fourth state, Karnataka, to its tally.
The win provides it a much-needed boost before the general election when it will
go up against the BJP on a national level.

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Congress, which admits it cannot defeat the BJP on its own, is pushing for an opposition coalition – and the win in Karnataka will put it in a stronger position
to make a deal with other parties.

May 22, 2023
Growing Islamophobia In India

Since BJP came to power, communalism has reached high pitch and unfortunately the focus of hatred is directed towards Muslims.

Initially increase in wave of communalism was attributed to the failure of secularist policies followed by the then dominant political Congress Party that consequently faced a backlash. With the passage of time the freedom of Muslims started getting severely curtailed as a community and the restrictions on their religious affairs increased by the day.

The prevailing sentiment in the majority community showed that the religious-based toxic narrative whipped up by the ultra-right political party in power was showing no signs of abating.

Actually the social polarisation is still on the rise with Muslims bearing the brunt of it. Unfortunately, the international community has turned a blind eye towards the plight of Indian Muslims encouraging the extreme majoritarian elements to run riot with the largest minority of the country.

At present there are scant chances of any substantial change in the attitude of the Hindu majority to release their majoritarian vicious on the country.

The potency of poisonous atmosphere created against Muslims in India by Modi regime has now made life impossible for India’s largest minority. Muslims are virtually alienated from the mainstream in India and face extreme persecution in all parts of the country.

The spate of violence against Muslims has resulted in creating deep fears in them knowing full well that the rioting will fester to all parts of the country.

The rule of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has emboldened hard-line Hindu religious groups in recent years to take up causes that they say defend their faith, although his party has denied any rise in communal tensions.

This problem is increasingly becoming unmanageable and could not be avoided as the extremists draw confidence from the fact that they are not answerable for their despicable actions.

The latest issue is hyping Islamophobia and clubbing Indian Muslims with it. Hindu extremists have taken to social media taking a curiously ribald line claiming that Muslims are responsible for the growth of population in India. They exhort Hindu women to bear more children as Muslim women are having too many babies. Such social media influencers have won large audiences within the Hindu majority and most the propaganda they peddle is based upon false demographic data and try to claim that the country is being refashioned into an Islamic state. It is pointed out the news of India overtaking China as the world’s most populous nation has been presented by these extremists as a call for action as the increase in Muslim population has become a threat and may eventually wipe out the Hindu religion from India.

While toeing this line they tend to forget that India is home to 1.4 billion people, including around 210 million Muslims, but birthrates have declined across the board over recent decades in tandem with global trends. Data about India in 2021 pointed out that an overall fertility rate of two children per woman, rising marginally to 2.3 for Muslim women. It was also mentioned that India’s Muslim community would grow to 311 million by 2050. It is very clear in this respect that despite their growing share of the national population, Muslims would remain a small minority in a country of 1.7 billion people by mid-century but these statistics have has not stopped the spread of viral disinformation on social media platforms.

Conspiracy theories that allege a Muslim plot to secure the faith’s numerical supremacy in India have been a staple of Hindu nationalist ideologues for years. Similar theories of immigrants and minorities replacing majority populations have also been embraced by the far-right in other countries. At times the theories have been indulged by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP which has come to dominate national politics partly through its muscular appeals to the country’s Hindu majority.

BJP lawmaker introduced into parliament a population control bill in 2019 that proposed to limit all Indian households to two children garnering the support of 125 other MPs.

The bill was withdrawn after critics accused the member of targeting Muslims when he gave a speech on the supposedly glaring disparity between Hindu and Muslim birthrates though this was an accusation he denied. Extremists however keep on harping that Hindus will get married once, and have two children whereas Muslims get married four times and have so many children that they can have their own cricket teams.

The BJP-inspired Indian media propaganda campaign against Muslims has gone to the extremes and it does not hesitate to resort to outlandish levels such as displaying an image of a grave with a padlocked grilled over it and mentioning that the incident occurred in Pakistan and was done in an effort to prevent necrophilia.

The reports printed in mainstream media outlets including India Today, Times of India, Hindustan Times and NDTV state that some people in Pakistan had resorted to locking their daughter’s graves to protect them from sexual violence as the social environment had given rise to a sexually charged and repressed society.

However, soon several Indian media outlets mentioned a tweet by some Haris Sultan, who also shared the same image on Twitter and alleged that it was taken in Pakistan.

In a fact-check it was pointed out that the image used by Indian media outlets was actually from a cemetery in India’s Hyderabad. It was added that the cemetery is located opposite Masjid-e-Salar Mulk, a mosque in Darab Jung Colony, Madannapet, Hyderabad attaching an image of the cemetery wherein the grave in question was clearly visible. It was thereafter clarified that the scarcity of space many relatives of the dead fear burial of other bodies and has placed grille there. Another source informed the media that the grille had been placed to prevent people from stamping on the grave since it was located right at the entrance.

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This completely misplaced broadside from the Indian media speaks volumes about the bitterness it entertains for Pakistan and in the wake of their irresponsible and biased reporting the Reporters Without Borders has placed India below Pakistan where press freedom is concerned. It is very clear that the Indian media invariably and unabashedly toe the line of BJP and Modi regime and it is now generally accepted that the last ten years of Modi rule has been successful in taming the independent spirit of Indian media.

The World Freedom Index places India at 161 out of 180 countries while Pakistan ranked at 150 nudging ahead a point since the last year though it still is far below the line.

There is certainly no denying the fact that in India, a compliant, corporatised mainstream media has worked diligently to project the BJP/Hindutva narrative, while those brave media persons and outlets that prioritise truth-telling over serving the rulers are hounded by the state. It is also noted that powerful business conglomerates with close ties to the ruling party have acquired most mainstream media outlets, ensuring that the patriotic narrative has muscled out alternative voices.

The result is that screaming anchors often rail against Pakistan, while India’s Muslims are treated as a troublesome minority and are demonised and accused of sympathising with terrorists. Indian media is now taken to be a potent weapon in the hands of the rightist elements in the country with Modi regime spearheading the majoritarian onslaught.

May 19, 2023
Modi And Pulwama Cover-Up

It was very intriguing to witness the unraveling of the cover-up perpetrated by Modi and Pulwama cover-up which created a crisis between Pakistan and India that posed a real possibility of war between both nuclear-armed neighbours.

The Pulwama incident of February 2019 is now exposed to have been covered-up by the BJP regime and utilised for blaming Pakistan with the aim to prove that Pakistani intentions were focused on destabilising the region.

This strategy was devised and implemented by the ruling BJP to gain advantage in the 2019 elections and apparently they succeeded in stirring up nationalist fervor in the electorate as Modi’s party emerged as the single largest party in Indian parliament extending Modi’s term of office for five years.

Unfortunately, no one paid any heed to the persistent denials issued by Pakistan that it was not involved in the incident and exhorting the international community to rationally view the matter and impress upon India to refrain from exploiting the situation. The assertion of Satyapal Malik, the former governor of occupied J&K who was in the hot seat when the incident took place, that it was essentially the Modi regime that exploited the incident against Pakistan has gained wide traction with fingers pointed out the intriguing nature of the regime.

The crisis sparked after a deadly militant attack on an Indian paramilitary facility in Pulwama located in occupied Kashmir. The consequence of this incident spiraled into high level of tension as India launched puerile retaliation in shape of air strikes inside Pakistan hitting what it claimed to be terrorist targets in Balakot, Pakistan.

The situation got ugly when in an air melee Pakistan downed an Indian aircraft whose pilot was captured who was later sent back to India. Now the reality has been brought to fore by Satyapal Malik pointing out that the BJP government at the time had tried to hush up certain aspects of the Pulwama episode in order to blame Pakistan.

Satyapal Malik stated that the Pulwama episode was a result of India’s incompetence particularly of the home ministry. He added that when he discussed the issue with Modi, as well as India’s then security czar Ajit Doval, he was told to keep quiet which gave him the impression that the prime minister and his acolytes wanted to blame Pakistan for the incident and gain electoral advantages.

It was not only that the former governor exposed Modi’s intrigue but also criticised BJP’s decision to rescind Indian Occupied Kashmir’s (IOK) autonomous status mentioning that Modi was ill-informed and ignorant about the disputed territory and was limited to his cocoon and did not pay much attention to detail and his action in Kashmir deliberately provoked a situation that angered Kashmiris compelling them to resort to violent action that has converted the place into a besieged territory whose population is experiencing worst human rights violation.

It is not only the former governor who has openly spoken about the negative intentions regarding of Modi regime in respect of the incident but many Indian opposition figures have noted in the aftermath of the Malik interview that when they had raised questions about the Pulwama episode the BJP accused them of speaking in Pakistan’s voice.

It is also pointed out that BJP was not averse to escalating war-like situation just to derive benefits for its electoral position. BJP’s reckless action did put Pakistan and India on the course of war without realising its horrendous consequences.

In his interview Satyapal Malik revealed that the attack on the Central Reserve Police Force convoy in Pulwama was a result of serious lapses in the conduct and performance of the Indian system. He gave details of how the CRPF had asked for aircraft to transport its personnel but was refused by the home ministry.

More importantly, he said that all of these lapses were raised by him directly when Modi called him after the Pulwama attack but the prime minister told him to keep quiet about this and not tell anyone.

He also mentioned that National Security Adviser Ajit Doval also told him to keep quiet and not talk about it and this stance immediately made him to realise that the intention was to put the blame on Pakistan and derive electoral benefit for the government and BJP. He also pointed out that he did not know why he was prevented from letting Mehbooba Mufti form a new government even though she claimed a majo¬rity of 56 in the 87-member assembly and why he chose instead to dissolve the assembly in November 2018.

At one point, he accused Mehbooba Mufti of lying, saying that the parties whose support she was claiming, such as the National Conference, were separately telling him to dissolve the assembly because they feared horse-trading.

Satyapal Malik said that he was removed as governor of Goa in August 2020 and sent to Meghalaya because he had brought to the prime minister’s attention several instances of corruption which the government chose to ignore rather than tackle.

He alleged that the people around the prime minister are indulging in corruption and often use the PMO’s name and that he had brought all this to Modi’s attention but added that the PM did not seem to care. Most significantly he pointed out that he can safely say that the PM has no real problem with corruption. This is a serious assertion as the opposition particularly the Congress party is consistently accusing Modi of being hand and glove with some entrepreneurs who are engaged in corrupt practices.

Keeping in view the extreme stance taken by the BJP the outlook for Pakistan-India relations remains troubled and it is feared that India will increase fomenting trouble in Pakistan. Pakistan naturally condemned the hidden-hand of BJP in creating negative impression for Pakistan that has caused serious problems.

India has also decided to host G20 tourism working group in the occupied J&K that has provoked sharp response from Pakistan. Pakistan’s response was predictable in view of India’s aim to use these meetings to secure legitimacy for its actions by conveying a sense of normalcy in Jammu and Kashmir which it illegally annexed and absorbed into the Indian union in August 2019. Modi regime has now devised another plan to put Pakistan to trouble and it has notified Pakistan of its intention to modify the Indus Waters Treaty reflecting a hardening of BJP government’s position and an effort to take advantage of Pakistan’s preoccupation with its domestic political turmoil and economic crisis.

The BJP intention is very clear as it is taking steps to put Pakistan into trouble and has gone ahead with long disputed construction of the 330 megawatt Kishanganga hydroelectric project on the Jhelum river and plans to construct the 850 MW Ratle Hydroelectric Project on the Chenab river in occupied Jammu and Kashmir.

India very cleverly by-passed the recognised channels of sorting out the problem and went to the extent of boycotting the World Bank appointed ad-hoc Court of Arbitration to deal with the dispute, a provision under the treaty. Just two days before the first court hearing in January this year India served notice on Pakistan that it would unilaterally amend the treaty citing Pakistan’s intransigence in handling disputes. BJP’s intent of consistently cornering Pakistan has created tremendous instability in the region

May 18, 2023
The Torkham border row

Pak-Afghan relations have many complications and one of them is Torkham, the porous land border both of them share that is the continuous source of trouble.

Afghanistan being a landlocked country heavily dependent upon access to sea for obtaining all goods and Pakistan has provided a transit corridor for letting them transfer their goods back to their country.

However, the Afghan trade corridor is notorious for malpractices and Pakistani authorities continuously complain about them but keeping in view the sensitivity of the matter the transit facility is not withdrawn.

Since after the Afghan Taliban’s takeover of Kabul the situation at the borders has exacerbated as Pakistani authorities are deeply concerned about the almost free movement of terrorists they allege get safe treatment in Afghanistan particularly after they undertake any terrorist activity in Pakistan.

The situation at Pak-Afghan border usually remains a source of friction between both the countries and it was in the last month of March that the Torkham border remained closed for many days as a deadlock over starting a dialogue prevailed between border officials of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Pakistani side emphasised that the Afghan government unilaterally closed the border crossing and as a matter of principle they should initiate a dialogue if they want the border to be reopened. It was added that additional forces deployed at the border after the recent firing incident had been withdrawn while the Afghan side too reciprocated by pulling back their reinforcement. Meanwhile, it was reported that some informal contacts were made with the Afghan Taliban authorities urging them to send a delegation for talks.

The local trading community and transporters have called for immediate reopening of the border crossing as edible goods worth millions of rupees were at the risk of decomposing. It was reported that hundreds of vehicles were parked at about 17km of roadside stretch from Katakushtha to Torkham which also posed a security risk for transporters.

The reason for the border closure by Taliban was not entirely clear though officials on both sides said they are in discussions to resolve the issue. However, the deadlock finally ended and Pakistani and Afghan authorities agreed to work together to improve and facilitate cross-border trade and pedestrian movement.

The agreement came during a meeting of the Pak-Afghan Border Management Committee in the Afghan customs offices in Gumrak area. The meeting discussed the reasons for the week-long unilateral closure of the Torkham border by Afghan border forces accusing Pakistani forces of manhandling Afghan patients and denying them and their attendants the permission to enter their country without visa.

The Afghan officials also sought entry permission for Afghan vehicles equivalent to Pakistani ones crossing over to Afghanistan as well as for the stranded citizens, who held Afghan cards or Proof of Registration (PoR) cards.

It was also reported that the Afghan authorities requested Pakistani counterparts not to seize the PoRs and Afghan cards and only punch them as most of the returning Afghans, who had lived in Pakistan for decades, were without other identification cards or legal travel documents.

It was also mentioned that the Afghan side also insisted that people of their country, who did not have PoRs or Afghan cards and were returning to Pakistan under the UNHCR voluntary repatriation programme should be granted permission to go back with other family members.

The Afghan authorities insisted that all those issues should be mutually resolved in order to prevent sudden border closures in future. It was added that both sides agreed to make concerted efforts to effectively stop child porters from secretly taking sugar and oranges to Afghanistan and smuggling goods to Pakistan.

It is now reported that a dispute over acquisition of land for the state-of-the-art customs terminal at the Pak-Afghan border at Torkham continues to simmer as construction work paces ahead to complete the project by the end of this year.

The tribal elders allege that the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), with whom they had originally signed an agreement on the provision of over 300 kanals of their collective land near the Torkham border for the construction of the terminal, had redesigned its structure and also grabbed over 400 kanals of additional land without their consent.

Though the idea of constructing the much-needed terminal was conceived in 2003, the construction work was delayed till 2015 due to the security situation in the region and also a row over the acquisition of the required land which was owned by the Khuga Khel sub-tribe of Landi Kotal.

In this matter the FBR has opted to stay in the background letting the National Logistic Cell (NLC) handle the matter as it had awarded the contract and is also present on ground to execute the construction plan.

The so-called aggrieved tribesmen and a senior JUI-F leader, insisted that they were never taken into confidence about the revised plan of the customs terminal and the subsequent encroachment of over 400 kanals of additional land.

They said that the concerned tribe and the residents of Khyber district were not against the construction of the terminal as it would provide the much-needed employment opportunities to the local people and give impetus to bilateral trade with Afghanistan.

They only demanded a fair deal regarding the acquisition of any additional land for the purpose.

To drive their point home the concerned tribesmen had during a protest rally in Landi Kotal threatening to forcibly stop the terminal’s construction if their grievances were not addressed within a week.

They, however, failed to muster the required strength to materialise their threat after the expiry of the deadline and opted for a negotiated settlement of the issue. It was reported that five of the nine members of the negotiating team had consented to the provision of additional 404 kanals of their collective land to the FBR and thus there was no question of disputing the agreement and sabotaging the construction of the customs terminal.

The NLC strongly mentioned that not a single inch of the tribal land would be occupied or utilised for the under-construction terminal without lawful authority.

It however pointed out that there was a difference of some 16 kanals of land after the signing of the revised agreement and that too would be satisfactorily settled with revised rates in due course of time.

It was reported that the main highway passing through the centre of the customs terminal was the property of National Highways Authority, while natural stream falling within the terminal’s jurisdiction was state property and there were also some individual owners of some of the land acquired for the terminal who were duly compensated. The NLC with FBR assistance is planning to conduct the final measurement of the terminal upon its completion by the end of this year and all stakeholders would be invited to see the actual size of the terminal premises.

It was conceded by the NLC that some additional land was acquired as the drawing of the terminal was revised after additional facilities were added to it on the request of the tribal elders and local traders, transporters and customs clearing agents.

At the under construction terminal customs clearance of loaded vehicles would be done under a one-window system while goods declaration procedure could be performed through internet under the WebBasedOne Custom system by the importers and exporters from any part of the country or abroad.

The new terminal will have a cumulative parking facility for at least 500 vehicles which will hugely minimise traffic mess on the main Peshawar-Torkham highway.

The terminal is also designed to offer rapid passenger immigration process, efficient cargo checking and handling alongside e-lanes for even faster clearance and a sufficiently large parking space for at least 500 trucks awaiting clearance.

April 13, 2023
Khalistan Demand Alive And Kicking

As Amritpal Singh has breathed fresh air into the demand for a Sikh homeland called Khalistan, let us take a look at the history and significance of demand.

Sikhs are reputed to be a volatile people inhabiting the fertile plains of north India and are also spread over the globe.

Apart from Muslims and Hindu Marathas, Sikhs were the third race that established their independent empire in the dying days of the 18th century that dominated almost all Punjab, Kashmir and Peshawar.

As an enterprising people they were found in the entire subcontinent but their presence in the military ranks was duly and widely marked. As a sturdy and volatile yet disciplined community they were ranked as one of the martial races by the British when the patterns of recruitment in the British Indian army changed after the mutiny against the British rule in 1857.

Since then the Sikhs became a regular and valued segment of the British military forces and along with Punjabi and Pushtoon Muslims they progressed very well in their chosen profession. The Sikhs were groomed as a fighting community by their religious leaders and they find it difficult to adjust to the overbearing attitude of the majority Hindu community of India.

Owing to their specifically different set of religious and cultural beliefs Sikhs hardly gelled with the majority Hindu community despite professing their similarities with Hindu mythology. They always considered themselves as a separate nation concentrated in a specific geographical location and did want a separate homeland for them.

The call for a separate Sikh state began in the wake of the fall of the British Empire and the first such formal call was given in 1940. The movement for a separate Sikh homeland gained traction with the support of the Sikh diaspora and their demand was to give them the Indian Punjab as a Sikh state.

Their movement flourished through the 1970s and 1980 and burst into crescendo in 1984 with the Indian government stormed the holiest of Sikh shrines in Amritsar to crush the rebellious leaders holed up in there. The resulting chaos ultimately resulted in the then Indian PM Indira Gandhi getting assassinated by her Sikh bodyguard ushering in a bloody holocaust against the Sikhs in India.

Though the Indian government was successful in controlling the Sikh rebellion but it proved to be a temporary respite as the community proved recalcitrant and soon the movement for a separate state known as Khalistan re-emerged that has now become quite a problem for the Indian state.

The Sikhs want a separate state with its boundaries varying as per the descriptions of various sub-groups of Sikhs. Some claim the entirety of Indian Punjab and the others advocate only parts of it be ceded. However larger claims include other parts of North India including Chandigarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Simla.

The movement has deep support within the Sikh community and Simranjit Singh Mann elected in 2022 from Sangrur is an openly Khalistani MP in the Indian parliament and his party Shiromani Akali Dak (Amritsar) is the only pro-Khalistani party. Moreover, Indian Punjab with about 58 per cent Sikhs and 39 per cent Hindus is the object of Sikh separatism.

Sikhs for Justice (SFJ), a UK-based Sikh organisation has announced a referendum to be held in Indian Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh for a separate state of Khalistan in Indian Punjab and declared Simla will be its capital.

He said 27 million Sikhs are eligible to vote in the referendum along with releasing a map of the proposed state. Keeping in view the growing unrest the Indian authorities extended a mobile internet blackout across Punjab having about 30 million people. The blackout extension came as supporters of Amritpal Singh were filmed vandalising India’s consulate in San Francisco, not long after similar disturbances in London.

Authorities in the northern state of Punjab launched a major search for Singh who has risen to prominence in recent months demanding the creation of Khalistan.

Singh and his supporters, armed with swords, knives and guns, raided a police station last month after one of the 30-year-old preacher’s aides was arrested for alleged assault and attempted kidnapping. Several policemen were injured in the brazen daytime raid on the outskirts of Amritsar, home to the holiest Sikh shrine, the Golden Temple, increasing pressure on authorities to act.

However, many days after a state-wide manhunt was launched for his arrest Amritpal Singh continued to evade the authorities. Singh has been on a dramatic run since he tricked the chasing police party in Punjab’s Jalandhar district and within 12 hours of the escape, he changed five vehicles.

Initially he was seen inside a Mercedes SUV before he changed the vehicle and his attire. After covering some distance he deserted the vehicle and got on a motorcycle and when the bike ran out of fuel, he got on a diesel-run three-wheeler and then stole another motorcycle.

It is believed that he had already crossed the state’s borders while efforts to locate him remained focused in Punjab over the past six days. The search has now been extended to the states of Maharashtra, Haryana and Uttarakhand along with restricting internet and suspending mobile service.

Described as a menacing Khalistani leader Amritpal Singh appears to have widespread support and his father was declared a fugitive by the Jalandhar administration that also raided his house. It was reported that cases against him and his supporters are filed for their involvement in criminal cases relating to spreading disharmony among classes, attempt to murder, attacking police persons and creating obstructions in the lawful discharge of duties of public servants.

The demand of Khalistan has spread over the Sikh diaspora and its severity could be measured by the fact that the Indian government summoned Canada’s High Commissioner to convey strong concern over Sikh protesters in Canada and how they were allowed to breach the security of India’s diplomatic mission and consulates.

Hundreds of protesters gathered in front of the Indian consulate in Vancouver over demands for an independent Sikh state, a simmering issue for decades recently triggered again. Canada has the highest population of Sikhs outside their home state of Punjab in India. Indian police also opened an investigation into a protest at its High Commission in London, where protesters with Khalistan banners took an Indian flag down from a first-floor balcony of the High Commission to denounce recent police action in India’s Punjab state.

India summoned the top British diplomat in New Delhi seeking an explanation pointing out that there was a complete absence of British police adding that the Indian government finds unacceptable the indifference of the UK Government to the security of Indian diplomatic premises and personnel in the UK.

Videos on social media showed a man taking down the Indian flag on a balcony of the consulate watched by a small group below waving yellow Khalistan flags. India has often complained to foreign governments over the activities of Sikh hardliners among the Indian diaspora who, it says, are trying to revive the insurgency with a massive financial push. By the looks of it the disaffection amongst the Sikhs is predicted to increase and it may spill over to other areas of India.

The Modi government is trying hard to control the growing Khalistan demand but it appears that it may not be an easy task at all.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are solely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of ARYNews or its management.

April 5, 2023
Analyzing the fall of Afghanistan’s Ashraf Ghani government

The unexpected collapse of NATO-sponsored regime led by Ashraf Ghani in Afghanistan is widely analyzed with a view to figure out the reasons for this failure.

The sudden collapse of the regime was also strange as for a large part of two decades it had complete support of the western alliance that practically occupied Afghanistan after the 9/11 outrage.

As was quite obvious the primary blame of the collapse of the Afghan regime is placed on the defeat of the army that could not sustain its operational capability after the gradually dwindling support of the western forces. Keeping in view the typical circumstances, after occupying Afghanistan, the NATO alliance raised a defence force and tried to transform it into a national army but the abject failure of this effort ultimately proved to be the final failure of the regime that they installed whether led by Karzai or Ashraf Ghani.

It is now the considered opinion that it was the Afghan army that was considered the bedrock of the planted Afghan regime and when it failed to ensure its writ on the country, the end occurred. The civil political structure constructed by the western forces was completely out of sync with the ground realities in Afghanistan and it was left with no option but to heavily rely on the army.

Ashraf Ghani: departing Afghan president who failed to make peace with Taliban

It was also quite obvious that the western alliance was conscious of the army angle and accordingly equipped and trained the Afghan army that was propagated as a well-drilled armed outfit particularly its Special Services Group whose raising also saw the involvement of an American private firm Raytheon and this force was portrayed as highly committed to the cause of the defence of the country.

The sudden collapse of the Afghan defence forces becomes all the more glaring when viewed in the backdrop of the fact that the Soviet-backed Afghan state survived for three years after the Soviet withdrawal actually outlasting the Soviet Union itself becoming a chastising indictment of the US-raised Afghan army.

PIC COURTESY: DEFENSE ONE

In this context many observers point out that right from the outset the Afghanistan’s security forces were flawed by American design as this style of forming up an effective, independent, Western-style national security force in Afghanistan that, in essence, is a large, impoverished country with a far-flung majority-rural population and where tribal, ethnic and regional allegiances far outweigh any semblance of a national identity was synonymous with actually squaring a round peg and it was always going to be an extremely difficult task and it became abundantly clear that the US and its coalition allies failed in that effort.

It was clear also that the Afghan military was essentially designed to be over-reliant on the US and thus designed to fail without it.

Throughout their stay in Afghanistan the US military relied heavily on combining ground operations with air power, using aircraft to resupply outposts, strike targets and collect reconnaissance and intelligence.

In the wake of President Biden’s withdrawal decision, the US pulled its air support, intelligence and contractors servicing Afghanistan’s planes and helicopters. That meant the Afghan military simply could not operate anymore. A disillusioned, demoralised fighting force, rife with corruption, Afghan army was reputed to number more than 300,000 but the real number was as little as half of that as the official numbers were undoubtedly inflated due to corrupt practices.

Figures on the size of the Afghan forces were consistently marred by the problem of so-called ghost fighters: no-show soldiers and police officers who were listed on the employee rolls only so corrupt people could collect their salaries.

It was even admitted by high-ranking US military trainers that they did not successfully build the Afghan force as institutions and that they failed to establish the necessary infrastructure that dealt effectively with military education, training, pay systems, career progression, personnel, accountability — all the things that make a professional security force. Rotating teams through tours of six months to a year the American trainers could not resolve the vexing problems facing Afghanistan’s army and police: endemic corruption, plummeting morale, rampant drug use, abysmal maintenance and inept logistics. At best what trainers did was to raise platoons and companies good to conduct raids and operate checkpoints but little worked behind them.

In addition, Afghan forces remained overextended across the country after the US announced and began its withdrawal. When US forces were still operating the Afghan government sought to maximise its presence through the country’s far-flung countryside, maintaining more than 200 bases and outposts that could be resupplied only by air. Extending government operations to the most of Afghanistan’s more than 400 districts has long been the main pillar of America’s counterinsurgency strategy.

Another factor that was ancillary to the failure of the Afghan regime was the failed state-building efforts.

The US’s 2001 invasion of Afghanistan led to externally-imposed, securitised state-building processes that had devastating consequences for the country and their security sectors. As a consequence the uprisings emerged after the US military intervention led to a security vacuum. Occupying US forces had to assume the role of the domestic security provider while also working to create a new local military from scratch.

The imposition of rigid, hierarchical American military doctrine without considering the differences in the Afghan cultural context also contributed to the failure. Moreover there were weak leaders such as Ashraf Ghani who led and survived as a cipher on the instructions of his contacts in the American politics and academia having scant connections with his home country. Such these leaders allowed networks of patronage and corruption to take root during the rebuilding processes, enabling the eventual success of the Taliban.

It is also pointed out that, despite their massive official troop numbers, the Afghan forces were struggling with significant structural deficiencies from the very beginning. High-ranking officers were known to have inflated their rosters with fictitious names and this practice emerged because the military served as a patronage network for the country’s leaders and officer posts were awarded to political loyalists rather than those with military acumen.

These politically connected officers used their positions to extract wealth for themselves by taking a cut from the transit fees the soldiers under their command routinely collected from the public at checkpoints.

The efforts of the western alliance were also hindered by factors beyond its control, including the lack of education in one of the world’s poorest countries and the pervasiveness of corruption. There is hardly any doubt that Americans tried building the Afghan state as well as its army in their own image, particularly the army that was heavily reliant on airpower and technology that the Afghans could not maintain by themselves but the fact is that the Afghan forces were far too small to defend a far-flung nation of thirty-eight million people, and no US administration wanted to fund a larger force.

The speed with which the Taliban captured the country is not a reflection of military capability but it is a reflection of a collapse in will to fight. And how much will to fight there was among Afghan security forces, even to begin with, is an open question, particularly when facing an adversary with militant devotion to their own cause.

March 29, 2023